The Aftermath of 2024 and the Significance of 2025 Elections
The year 2024 was the most significant election year in modern history, with over 60 countries - representing more than half the world's population - heading to the polls. This surge in democratic participation was accompanied by political turbulence, economic instability, and heightened security risks. The scale and intensity of these elections fundamentally reshaped the global landscape, and the true impact of these elections is only now beginning to unfold, creating new political, commercial, and security challenges. One of the most visible trends was a global shift away from incumbents. Across many regions, leadership changed hands or was weakened, introducing heightened uncertainty, fragile coalitions, and unpredictable policy directions.
In this volatile environment, organisations faced growing risks to their people and operations. For example, during the 2024 Chad crisis, International SOS provided critical support in safeguarding staff amid escalating security threats. Similarly, in Lebanon, we facilitated many evacuations, including a complex security evacuation for an international development company, ensuring personnel safety in a volatile environment. Meanwhile, throughout 2024, International SOS supported a range of clients with crisis management and business continuity planning during the US electoral cycle, helping organisations navigate security risks, unrest, and operational disruptions.
2025: Navigating a New Security Landscape Shaped by 2024 Elections
While 2024 saw a historic number of elections, 2025 remains a crucial year for leadership transitions in key economies.
The 2024 US election results have significantly impacted global security. The US’s sudden and considerable shift in foreign policy, characterised by the guiding principles of ‘America First’ and a shift toward transactional diplomacy under President Trump, has created significant political uncertainty. Public commentary surrounding the potential annexation of Canada and Greenland (Denmark), as well as discussions on reassuming administration of the Panama Canal, has further strained longstanding alliances. Meanwhile, the administration’s fluctuating tariff policies, which have been imposed, lifted, and reimposed multiple times, have contributed to global economic instability, impacting international trade and security.
In addition, the results from the 2025 US gubernatorial and legislative elections in a few states, as well as numerous mayoral races, could shift the political landscape and impact policy changes on issues ranging from local economies to environmental regulations.
In Canada, the political landscape is also expected to remain volatile. The replacement of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Mark Carney, who has already called for an early general election in 2025, adds to the uncertainty. Trump's ongoing trade war, his demands for increased defense spending from allies, and statements proposing the annexation of Canada have further strained the relationship between the two countries and could potentially escalate into a security threat for Canada.
In Latin America, Bolivia’s elections take place amid the backdrop of a growing fuel crisis and will be closely watched due to their impact on lithium supply chains, a critical resource for global industries, while Chile’s election could shift trade policies, particularly in the mining sector. Ecuador’s elections will also hold weight as a major oil-exporting nation that influences regional economic stability.
Across the Atlantic, one of the most significant general elections of the year has already taken place in Germany, which is already dictating EU policy shifts. Another influential election will take place in Poland, where the presidential election could redefine the country’s relationship with Brussels and impact regulatory environments for businesses. Beyond Europe and Latin America, elections in Cameroon present a security risk in a country already facing internal conflicts, while Singapore’s anticipated election is expected to maintain stability but may bring regulatory shifts for foreign businesses.
Election-Driven Risks to Workforces
In today’s landscape, geopolitics is as important as geography. Elections are triggering abrupt policy shifts, introducing risk and unpredictability for global organisations and their people. Multinational corporations must anticipate and prepare for a spectrum of challenges that could impact workforce health and security. These challenges encompass civil unrest, cybersecurity threats, supply chain disruptions, and health risks linked to political instability.
Civil Unrest and Political Violence
Election-related unrest remains a primary concern. The period surrounding results is particularly volatile, as seen in 2024 when disputes over election integrity in multiple countries led to widespread protests, for example Mozambique, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. Civil disturbances can disrupt business operations, endanger employees, and force the temporary closure of offices, retail locations, and critical infrastructure.
There are a number of high-risk countries, including Ecuador, where either past elections have sparked significant unrest or ongoing conflict remains a concern. Companies must implement real-time security monitoring and contingency plans for their workforce in these regions.
Cybersecurity and Disinformation Threats
Elections are prime targets for cyber threat actors, with state-sponsored actors, cybercriminals, and hacktivists seeking to manipulate outcomes or create chaos. Cyberattacks on electoral systems, government institutions, and businesses have risen sharply in recent years. From December 2022 to August 2023, cyber incidents targeting governments surged from 40,000 to 100,000.1 In 2024, the US election cycle saw a surge in cyber threats, including confirmed breaches of government networks and a foreign state-linked group who was able to access email accounts and personal devices belonging to members of both the Trump and Biden teams, demonstrating the scale of election-related cyber espionage and its potential impact on political stability.
Corporations face heightened risks, including disinformation campaigns that could affect markets, phishing attacks targeting executives, and potential ransomware incidents. Strengthening cyber resilience in accordance with the latest threat intelligence will be crucial in 2025.
Supply Chain Disruptions
Political instability can significantly impact supply chains, particularly in resource-dependent industries. In Mozambique, post-election violence in 2024 led to disruptions in mining operations, affecting global exports. Similarly, Bolivia’s election results will directly influence lithium supply chains, critical to battery and electric vehicle production.
Businesses operating in politically sensitive regions must map their supply chain risks, establish alternative supplier networks, and prepare for potential trade policy shifts following key elections.
Proactive Strategies for Organisations
To safeguard operations and protect employees during this period of heightened electoral risk, businesses should take a multi-layered approach to risk management. Key strategies include:
1. Strengthening Security and Crisis Preparedness
- Conduct thorough pre-election risk assessments in key operational regions to identify potential threats.
- Develop and test emergency response plans that address civil unrest, strikes, or violent clashes that could impact employees and business continuity.
- Establish communication channels for real-time security intelligence, ensuring rapid decision-making when threats emerge.
- Implement access controls and physical security measures for offices, warehouses, and operational sites in high-risk areas.
2. Supporting Workforce Resilience and Mental Wellbeing
- Provide training on personal security and crisis management to help employees navigate politically unstable environments.
- Offer mental health and resilience programmes to support employees dealing with stress related to political uncertainty.
- Ensure that employees in volatile regions have access to emergency medical and psychological support services.
3. Reinforcing Cybersecurity Defences
- Monitor cyber threats linked to election periods, particularly phishing campaigns and disinformation that could impact corporate security and reputational stability.
- Strengthen cybersecurity protocols, including multi-factor authentication and employee awareness training, to prevent breaches.
- Establish incident response teams to swiftly address and mitigate cyberattacks targeting corporate infrastructure or sensitive data.
4. Ensuring Business Continuity and Supply Chain Stability
- Develop robust business continuity plans that account for potential disruptions linked to election-related instability.
- Diversify supplier networks to mitigate risks from trade restrictions, strikes, or politically motivated economic shifts.
- Engage with local authorities and industry partners to stay informed about potential regulatory changes post-election.
By implementing these strategies, businesses can reduce exposure to the risks associated with the 2025 elections while ensuring the safety and stability of their workforce and operations.
Conclusion: Preparing for an Unpredictable Political Landscape
The elections of 2025 will not only shape national governments but will have a lasting impact on international business, security, and Workforce Resilience. Companies must integrate election risk into their strategic planning, ensuring they remain agile and resilient in the face of political uncertainty.
The lessons from 2024 are clear: businesses that proactively assess risks, implement security frameworks, and leverage expert guidance will be best positioned to navigate this evolving landscape.
International SOS offers the expertise and resources needed to mitigate these risks, providing organisations with the intelligence, security and health solutions necessary to safeguard their employees and operations. The elections of 2025 are more than just political transitions—they are critical events that will define the future of corporate resilience.
While these risks can be anticipated and mitigated, ongoing uncertainty is a given—making long-term resilience and trusted partnerships more vital than ever.